The tentative deal to end the US-Iran war has raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen to commercial traffic, but shipping executives and maritime advocates warn that restoring normal operations will take weeks if not months. Roughly 500 vessels are still queued for passage through the strategic waterway, according to the International Chamber of Shipping, and clearing the backlog safely will require extensive coordination between naval forces, port authorities, and private operators.
Seafarers Stranded for Months
Some 20,000 crew members have been stranded in the Gulf region since Iran closed the strait in response to the US-Israel military campaign that began on February 28. The International Maritime Organization said it will begin coordinating evacuations, but IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stressed that safety guarantees must be in place first. Iran and the US have carried out 46 known attacks on international shipping during the conflict, killing at least 14 seafarers, according to IMO data. The Forward Seamen’s Union of India, whose nationals make up a significant share of the global maritime workforce, has welcomed the agreement and called for the swift repatriation of stranded sailors.
Mines and Risk Assessment
Iran laid naval mines in the strait during the conflict, and minesweepers have yet to fully clear the waterway. Steven Jones, founder of the Seafarers Happiness Index, told Al Jazeera that “open isn’t a switch” and that shipowners, charterers, and insurers will need consistent evidence of safe passage before resuming normal transits. “That takes time and evidence: consistent peace where needed, clear and credible threat reduction, reliable communications, and several cycles of uneventful transits,” Jones added.
Impact on Dubai and UAE Ports
Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, one of the world’s largest container terminals, has faced significant disruption as rerouted cargo strained capacity. The UAE’s economy, heavily dependent on re-export trade through the Gulf, has felt the impact acutely. Industry analysts expect a gradual ramp-up as the backlog clears, but port bottlenecks and insurance repricing may keep shipping costs elevated through the summer. The International Chamber of Shipping’s Secretary-General Thomas Kazakos called the agreement a relief but said the safe departure of stranded crews must remain the top priority. For Dubai’s logistics sector, the reopening represents a critical step toward recovery after more than three months of disruption, though industry participants say the pace of that recovery will depend heavily on how quickly mines can be cleared and how rapidly insurers lower war-risk premiums on Gulf transits.
