The United States and Iran continue to make competing claims about who controls the critical Strait of Hormuz, with shipping data painting a far different picture than official US statements about the waterway’s status.
US President Donald Trump claimed last month that the US was in ‘total control’ of the strait, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. US officials told CNN that 40 commercial ships carrying some 18 million barrels of oil passed through the strait under US military escort on Tuesday, described as a wartime record.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said ‘at least 10 million barrels’ were getting through each day, with between 15 million and 17 million on one recent day.
However, ship-tracking data from maritime analytics firms tells a starkly different story. Kpler recorded just six vessels crossing the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday, and five on Monday, with a 10-day average of 13 vessels per day. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded an average of approximately 12 transits per day from August 26 to September 1.
Before the war began in late February, an average of around 100 ships and 20 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway each day. According to figures from PortWatch, this has fallen to an overall average of seven vessels since March.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), which monitors threats to shipping in the region, said in a September 1 advisory that commercial traffic through Hormuz was ‘far below baseline,’ despite a ‘modest uptick from recent lows.’ The advisory put the risk level at ‘severe,’ citing continued risk of drifting or uncharted mines.
Iran has acknowledged that some vessels are getting through but insists it remains in control. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said ‘the enemy managed to get some ships’ through Hormuz, but stressed that Iranian forces remain ‘in complete control of the strait.’
Analysts suggest the discrepancy may stem from differences in how the US counts vessel transits. ‘A US operational count plausibly includes everything that moved under or near naval protection: naval auxiliaries, offshore support and tugs, coastal and small craft, and dhows,’ said Eirik Hooper of maritime research consultancy Drewry, noting that commercial trackers filter out such vessels.
Both the US and Iran have an incentive to play up their influence in the strait, the status of which has become a major sticking point in the six-month conflict. Former US Ambassador Henry Ensher noted that ‘both sides would be well served to stop talking quite so much.’
Sources: Al Jazeera, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, Kpler
